Posted by sean
At this time’s Animal Spirits is dropped at you by YCharts:
See right here for YCharts Highlights, Lowlights, and insights from 1H 2022
On at present’s present we talk about:
Future Proof Competition
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Given all of the dialogue this week, I believed it might be attention-grabbing to look again on the one instance we now have of a two-quarter contraction in G.D.P. that was *not* labeled a recession by NBER: Q2 and Q3, 1947.
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) July 27, 2022
Uncommon to see: Fed is actively mountain climbing charges (blue line) whereas GDP is contracting (backside) … sometimes in prior recessions (pink bars), Fed has been slicing charges as GDP has declined pic.twitter.com/nmrYG3TBc0
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 1, 2022
B of A: “The current debate about whether or not the US is already in a recession is a distraction. Rip roaring payroll, sturdy GDI and robust closing gross sales all recommend ‘recession’ continues to be a forecast, not a actuality.” [Harris] pic.twitter.com/kuKQ9ry8De
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) July 29, 2022
Enjoyable info: Within the first six months of the 1981-82 recession, we misplaced 1,046k jobs, within the first six months of the 1990-01 recession we misplaced 690k jobs, in 2001 we misplaced 761k jobs, in 2007-09, we misplaced 705k jobs. In 2022 we gained 2,740k jobs.
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) July 29, 2022
Stepping again from the extremely excessive frequency debates this image from @WSJ is a good reminder of simply how a lot better financial coverage has gotten during the last eighty years in comparison with what got here earlier than. Each higher understanding and institutional progress. https://t.co/RBlb89Z6hT pic.twitter.com/X9p5CLn46I
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) July 30, 2022
10-year Treasurys recorded the most important one-month yield decline since **March 2020**–Dow Jones Market Knowledge.
At 2.642% at present
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) July 29, 2022
The S&P 500 gained 3.9% on the day of the Fed hike and following day.
That’s formally one of the best rally after a hike going again to 1970 (Bloomberg information).
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 28, 2022
5. There has by no means been a recession and not using a 4Q GAAP EPS decline. In most recessions, Y/Y EPS development has ⬇️ <-20%.
That is important as a result of the market tends to⬆️ sooner when EPS development is ⬇️(markets anticipate reversals), EXCEPT when EPS development has been <-20% (SPX -9.8% GPA). 5/5 pic.twitter.com/5NN7K5yAcW— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) July 25, 2022
Proceeds from IPOs of know-how corporations have amounted to $512M, down from $58.7B final yr.
— Ryan Petersen (@typesfast) July 27, 2022
mortgage charges have been exceptionally unstable in 2022.
to date this yr the usual deviation of the weekly change within the 30-year FRM is eighteen foundation factors, highest since 2008 and third highest prior to now half century pic.twitter.com/BlgX03CU7I— 📈 Len Kiefer 📊 (@lenkiefer) July 29, 2022
Unbelievable story. Tiger World-backed begin up MissFresh simply advised workers its run out of cash. At similar time, unpaid suppliers have occupied its workplaces in protest. Reminder: was listed at $3bn valuation final yr – in @FT https://t.co/Sfp4OK3wEy
— Murad Ahmed (@muradahmed) July 28, 2022
In the meantime….
The median actual income development for the FAANG shares has formally turned adverse for the primary time in nearly 2 many years. pic.twitter.com/CAUP6VZQU7
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 29, 2022
*BEST BUY DROPS 11% AS 2Q COMPARABLE SALES TO DECLINE ABOUT 13%
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 27, 2022
As soon as individuals get used to a sure luxurious, they take it as a right. Then they start to depend on it. Lastly, they attain some extent the place they will’t dwell with out it. pic.twitter.com/4t2hz9xGOE
— Yuval Noah Harari (@harari_yuval) July 12, 2022
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