Thursday, March 23, 2023
HomeWealth ManagementWhat’s Up with Inflation? (And Why the Reply is M2 Cash Progress)

What’s Up with Inflation? (And Why the Reply is M2 Cash Progress)

Dork alert – this weblog could also be dry, however I’ll attempt to preserve it snappy.

I do know this half is simply re-writing the information, however let’s begin with the info:

  • The Shopper Value Index (CPI) elevated 1.0% in Could, nicely above the +0.7% that was anticipated.
  • The CPI is up 8.6% from a yr in the past. That is what a number of dorks on CNBC seek advice from as “Headline CPI” as a result of, nicely, it’s the quantity you see within the headlines.
  • Headline CPI is normally damaged down by the identical dorks into one thing known as Core CPI, which is the whole lot EXCEPT meals and vitality costs. That is finished as a result of, traditionally, meals and vitality costs are very risky, and with inflation, there’s one other group of dorks making an attempt to determine a development. Since these two parts make that tough, they’re stripped out to create the Core CPI.
    • Core CPI rose 0.6% in Could, above the 0.5% anticipated. By the way in which, the core costs are up 6% in comparison with a yr in the past.
    • Vitality costs elevated 3.9%…that’s in all probability a giant shock to these of you who haven’t been to a fuel station shortly.
    • Meals costs elevated 1.2%.

So, wanting extra carefully on the particulars of the most recent report, vitality costs with a +3.9% enhance have been the largest contributor to the upper headline CPI studying – principally because of gasoline.

Then there’s the battle rigidity in Ukraine and the re-opening of China from strict COVID lockdown enforcement that guarantee us vitality will proceed to influence shopper costs into the fast future.

Meals costs, the opposite risky class, have been pushed by costs for dairy merchandise. Dairy merchandise posted their largest month-to-month enhance in fifteen years.

SO, after eradicating these two parts, it’s clear that there’s further inflationary strain.

For instance, housing rents (which is each lease costs AND the rental worth of precise properties) have been up +0.6%. That’s essential as a result of rents make up greater than 30% of the headline CPI, and I’m unsure rents have caught up with precise residence costs, which have skyrocketed greater than 30% since COVID began.

Then there are the worth will increase throughout service classes like airline fares (+12.6%), automobile and truck leases (+1.7%), and inns/motels (+1.0%).

And go forward, I dare you to inform me you DIDN’T simply sing Sugar Hill Gang “Resort, Motel, Vacation Inn” to your self…

Anyway, again to the dorks…costs for brand new autos continued to rise, and used automobile costs rose 1.8% for the month as nicely.

Regardless of the place you look or which manner you narrow it, inflation is excessive, and it has continued to rise.

However wait, I’ve a “however”.

There’s this factor that an entire OTHER group of dorks calls the “cash provide” …AKA “M2”.

The M2 or cash provide skyrocketed throughout COVID. See the chart under.


M2 Money Supply


In response to a analysis agency we observe, Pattern Macro, there’s a large correlation between M2 and CPI, however CPI lags M2 by about 13 months.

So if M2 peaked firstly of 2021…and it’s now the summer time of 2022…possibly…simply possibly…we’ll see CPI come down based mostly on M2 development slowing.

Which means we’d have to see the year-over-year (Y/Y) Core CPI’s month-to-month studying begin to development DOWN.

However as I beforehand said, the Y/Y Core CPI was up 0.6% in Could, and we have to see the Y/Y Core CPI trending DOWN. We’d have to see one thing like this…


CPI 2022


Wait, what?

Yeah, the Y/Y Core CPI has been LOWER for 2 straight months, virtually precisely consistent with the M2 downtrend that began in February 2021.

What if, and I’m simply questioning right here, however what if Core inflation retains taking place? Effectively then, all of the Fed must do is wait.

Since a lot of the market tantrum we’re seeing (Friday and immediately) is predicated on expectations that the Fed will take a good MORE aggressive stance on elevating rates of interest than was anticipated a couple of weeks in the past, what occurs if Chairman Powell DOESN’T get extra aggressive?

Wednesday will inform all…I’m studying some dorks expect a rise of 75 foundation factors (bps), however what if it’s not?

If the Y/Y Core CPI retains falling over the subsequent few months consistent with the discount in M2 that began in February of 2021, it’s not inconceivable that Core CPI is again all the way down to the Fed’s personal goal price of two.5% all by itself.

I’m not making a prediction, I’m simply saying that it’s doable M2 is what was (and is) driving a number of the CORE inflation.

And I’m saying that proper now, any shock of fine information could have the same impact as we see with the unhealthy information.

So don’t fiddle together with your portfolios making an attempt to guess all of this. Every little thing can change in a short time (after all, each for the nice and the unhealthy), however you possibly can’t guess these items. Want extra proof? Take heed to our latest Off the Wall podcast with Dr. Daniel Crosby the place he explains why.

The perfect information is that whether or not I’m proper or improper, it’s irrelevant as a result of none of that is coupled with a suggestion to do something. You must have the portfolio you want for tomorrow and never attempt to construct the portfolio you WISH you had on January 5th.

Once more, I’m not within the prediction enterprise, however I’m within the likelihood enterprise, and irrespective of how you are feeling, there’s NOT a 100% likelihood of something. Sometime a restoration will begin, and I’m right here to inform you that on March 9th of 2009, nobody felt like that was the day it could all begin to flip round.

And don’t even get me happening the subject of Christmas Eve of 2018.

(But when the Fed doesn’t increase by 75bps on Wednesday AND Powell is upbeat in his report, I’ll fortunately settle for a chance to take a victory lap when you chant “Dork Dork Dork”!)

Preserve wanting ahead.

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